submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today
EUUSD pair is being corrected, but the euro uptrend is strongYou can take all my factories, all my capital, everything I have from me. But leave me five of my best managers, and before you know it, I’ll be ahead of everyone else again. One of the richest men of the 19th century, Andrew Carnegie, was right. Success in business depends on efficient management. Forex trading is also a business. The strength of a currency is determined also by efficient management. The euro-area used to envy the USA that could afford to redistribute financial resources from strong states to weak ones. Only the pandemic has forced the EU to abandon the principle “at court everyone is for himself.” It has immediately influenced the EUUSD.
In the modern world, a bet on a currency is a bet on the control over the coronavirus. However, Congress failed to agree on the extension of the program of weekly unemployment benefits that officially expired on July 31, leaving more than 25 million people without support. In Europe, however, the rich North provides aid for the poor South. So, the management in the euro-area seems to be more effective. Financial analysts suggest that poor management could kill the US dollar.
In August, the USD index has featured the worst drop over almost two years. The bear speculative
sentiment in the derivatives market is as strong as in April 2018.
Dynamics of US dollar speculative positionsSource: Wall Street Journal.
As I suggested earlier, weak data on European GDPs triggered the EUUSD correction. However, amid the divergence in the epidemiological environment, the euro-area economy is likely to recover sooner than the US growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has even suggested a fresh lockdown for 4 – 6 weeks. Allegedly, the US Congress can afford it.
The euro-area GDP in the April-May period fell by 40.3% on an annual basis, which, compared with the same period of 2019, seems to be a more dramatic drop than the US GDP drop by 32.9%. However, population support programs will continue in 2021; the worst-affected regions, including Italy, performed better than expected. The control over the coronavirus relieves fear, which is a key factor in the economic recovery trend.
Dynamics of European GDPsSource: Bloomberg
Of course, there are many problems in the euro area. The European economy is much dependent on exports and tourism, which makes foreign demand a very important factor. Under the current conditions, it could slow down the economic recovery. Besides, the number of coronavirus cases has increased amid the end of the lockdown in some parts of the region, including Spain.
The epidemiological situation in the US is difficult, the management is poor. Besides, the US even now, when all the countries try to unite to solve a common problem, continues its attacks on China trying to please the ambitions of the White House. All these factors support the idea of the strong EUUSD uptrend. It makes sense to use the drawdowns to 1.173, 1.168, and 1.162 to enter long-term purchases.
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According to our Forecast System, USD to EUR Forex pair is a not so good long-term (1-year) investment*. "United States Dollar / Euro" exchange rate predictions are updated every 5 minutes with latest Forex (Foreign Exchange) rates by smart technical market analysis. Free Forex Signals ecb eur usd, eur in usd, eur usd chart, eur usd forecast, eur usd forecast today, eur usd news today, eur usd technical analysis, euro usd, Eurusd, eurusd analysis, EURUSD CHART, eurusd live chart, forex eur usd, fx eur usd Post navigation EUR/USD is the forex ticker that tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a Euro. The Euro-Dollar pair is popular with traders because its constituents represent the two largest and ... Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Turns More Bearish After Failure at 1.20 From dailyfx.com Back on September 10, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was widely expected to talk the Euro down when she held her regular press conference following the decision by the central bank’s Governing Council to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged, as expected. EUR/USD Forecast Post # 1; Quote; First Post: Aug 27, 2018 2:09pm Aug 27, 2018 2:09pm Ramiin. Joined Aug 2016 Status: Member 85 Posts. Attached Image (click to enlarge) Post # 2; Quote; Sep 4, 2018 12:12pm Sep 4, 2018 12:12pm Ramiin. Joined Aug 2016 Status: Member 85 Posts. Attached Image (click to enlarge) Post # 3; Quote; Sep 4, 2018 12:35pm Sep 4, 2018 12:35pm Saab786 Joined Jan ... EUR/USD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast. From liteforex.com. Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.1706 with a target of 1.2100 – 1.2200. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.1706 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1472 – 1.1327. Analysis: A descending correction of larger degree ... EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1832. US employment data mixed, signaling a slower pace of recovery in October. The US presidential election continues to overshadow everything else.
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